What do the 2023 Brewers Actually Need to do? Part I
By now you should know the story: as much as you hated watching the Brewers offense as an everyday fan, it was actually the pitching that tanked the club’s playoff hopes.
Let’s look at the pitching…
A simple exercise demonstrates what happens: the Brewers declined by eight expected wins and nine actual wins thanks to a complete collapse in pitching, from elite to ~average (and that’s putting it nicely) runs prevention.
Of course, the worst part was the manner in which the Brewers’ pitching collapsed; the relievers did not make an already unpopular front office look any better following the Josh Hader trade. Let’s re-live the bullpen from August, September, and October:
For reference, the 2022 National League converted approximately 83% of their Save + Hold opportunities into actual Saves and Holds (see [SV + HLD] / [SV + HLD + BSV]). So a 74% percentage during a playoff trade after the club traded away their previously most elite reliever and fan favorite tweeter…well, let’s just say the Brewers could have lost at least five additional games that they could have won during the stretch run due to their bullpen. It certainly didn’t help that new acquisitions Matt Bush and Taylor Rogers paved the way with five of those losses and a combined 18 / 25 performance converting saves and holds.
Luckily for Brewers fans, the team went out and signed …
…welp. In all honesty, it’s an extremely interesting bullpen in a good way. We get to watch Devin Williams and Matt Bush rush it up there in the late innings, with fan favorites Hoby Milner and Pete Strzelecki stopping by along the way. General Manager Matt Arnold sure has a type, and in the game of gambling on bullpens, I still think the club could have spent the bulk of their $20 million in lost payroll on something that helps the team and this bullpen sure looks like it could benefit from another name. But I’ve got to give Arnold credit, this bullpen sure has a lot of guys. In a good way. Dudes.
As for the rotation, the Brewers suffered the worst of fates in 2022:
The 2022 Milwaukee Brewers lost 28 innings compared to their 2021 core rotation, with a runs prevented decline of approximately 100 runs.
The 2022 Milwaukee Brewers gained 62 innings compared to their 2021 core relievers, with a runs prevented improvement of approximately 7 runs.
The 2022 Milwaukee Brewers lost 24 innings compared to their 2021 depth arms, with a runs prevented improvement of approximately 7 runs.
On a spot-by-spot basis for their rotational core in 2022, the Brewers lost 12 runs from their top starter, lost 31 runs from their second starter, lost 7 runs from their fourth best starter, and lost 26 runs from their fourth starter. From their other starters, they lost 7 runs from their best spot, lost 7 runs from their second spot, and then created a third spot that was -13 runs (13 runs below average).
The failure was systemic, and injuries certainly impacted it, but so did roster preparation and strategy. Milwaukee did not enter the 2022 season with nearly enough starting pitchers on their big league club or in the minors. And yet that’s arguably not the worst pitching move of 2022; perhaps their most fatal flaw was moving from a six-starter rotation in 2021 to a five-starter rotation in 2022. It will be forever impossible to argue that the lack of rest and increase in workload from 2021 to 2022 (following only one COVID-19 pandemic shortened season) caused the uptick in injuries (because, you know, pitching), but even beyond basic slot-by-slot performance in the rotation, each of the Brewers’ excellent 2021 starters personally declined in 2022: Corbin Burnes -13 runs prevented, Brandon Woodruff -18, Freddy Peralta -18, Adrian Houser -26, and Eric Lauer -8.
It’s difficult to look at each pitcher’s underlying statistics (like Deserved Runs Allowed, from Baseball Prospectus) and not expect simply running the whole show back to improve in 2023. The biggest issue will be returning the starting pitchers to a six-starter rotation once again, and planning to lessen the workload for injury returning pitchers like Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff as much as easing the strain on Corbin Burnes. Milwaukee is going to be a competitive team, and they should (a) learn from their strategic mistake in 2022 (don’t mess with a good thing, like a planned six-starter rotation!), and (b) prepare for deep playoff runs. Milwaukee needs Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff, and even Lauer! to win a Championship. They should act like it from day one with a six-starter rotation, and they should not stray.
Luckily, the Brewers added veteran and 2018 fan-favorite Wade Miley to the mix for 2023, and to the credit of the front office they have a better top eight starters (if you count Aaron Ashby as a starter) entering this season than they did in 2022:
In fact, this rotation is so deep that should the Brewers consider acting upon their Janson Junk development gamble (I keep thinking of his best case scenario as a serviceable depth starter, but there’s a part of me that always wonders if he’s the next Zach Davies or Chase Anderson or Jordan Lyles or …), and everyone is healthy, they could run a rotation of Burnes / Woodruff / Lauer / … / Miley / Junk, and then alternate two of Houser / Peralta / Ashby to swingman or relief roles. I have said it on Twitter a ton, and I’ll say it here again: I believe Aaron Ashby could especially be unlocked as a reliever, and now his health issues make me believe that even moreso. Adding Houser and/or Peralta to the bullpen could also boost it. The Brewers should do that, taking the opportunity to create either some elite swingman roles or elite long-man roles (ex., a multi-inning two-headed closer or high leverage set-up out of Peralta and/or Ashby).
I like a Burnes / Woodruff / Lauer / Houser / Miley / Junk rotation with a Williams / Ashby / Peralta / Bush / Milner back end of the bullpen.
Tomorrow…the batters
